March Madness is in full swing, and while this year’s tournament doesn’t feature the typical Cinderella stories, the competition is fiercer than ever. As the 2025 NCAA Tournament enters its Sweet 16, only one double-digit seed, (10) Arkansas, remains in the hunt for an Elite Eight berth. The absence of lower-seeded underdogs is a surprising twist, but the remaining teams bring their own flair and firepower, making this year’s March Madness far from predictable.
While the absence of the typical “Cinderella” may be disappointing for some, the stacked field presents plenty of compelling matchups. From powerhouses like Duke and Purdue to hungry underdogs like BYU and Ole Miss, the Sweet 16 is shaping up to deliver some exciting basketball.
Here’s a breakdown of how the underdogs still standing in the tournament can make a deep run and possibly upset the higher-seeded teams ahead of them.
(2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU: Keys for BYU’s Upset
The first Sweet 16 matchup features the high-scoring (6) BYU Cougars facing off against (2) Alabama. Although Alabama is favored by 5.5 points, BYU has the offensive firepower to cause an upset. The Cougars have one of the highest shooting percentages in the nation, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage and excelling in both 2-point (58%) and 3-point (37%) shooting.
BYU’s biggest asset is their star player, Egor Demin, a 6-foot-9 point guard who’s drawing NBA attention. Demin excels in the pick-and-roll, averaging 15 points, six rebounds, and five assists in the tournament’s first weekend. Alabama’s defense against the pick-and-roll has been one of their weak spots this season, ranking 303rd out of 364 D-I teams in defending that play type.
For BYU to pull off the upset, they’ll need Demin to continue his playmaking brilliance and take advantage of Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities. On the defensive end, BYU must focus on protecting the rim and limiting Alabama’s offensive production inside, an area where the Cougars have been solid all season.
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland: Keys for Maryland’s Success
The (4) Maryland Terrapins have a challenging task ahead as they face off against the tournament’s No. 1 seed, Florida. However, Maryland has the tools to challenge the Gators, particularly with their strong transition defense and 3-point shooting. Florida excels at pushing the pace, with Walter Clayton Jr. leading the charge in transition. Maryland will need to stifle Florida’s fast break and ensure their defensive communication remains tight, an area where Florida struggled in a close contest against UConn earlier in the tournament.
Maryland has also shown significant proficiency on the offensive glass and shooting from beyond the arc. If Maryland can control the boards and keep hitting 3-pointers at a high rate, as they’ve done in previous games, they have a solid shot at advancing. Maryland must also keep Florida from getting easy transition buckets, a key factor in preventing the Gators from building momentum.
(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona: Keys for Arizona’s Victory
Arizona enters their Sweet 16 matchup with Duke as the underdog, and the Wildcats will need a strong performance from Caleb Love if they are to upset the Blue Devils. Love has faced Duke multiple times and has had mixed success in those encounters. In wins over Duke, he averages 20.8 points per game on 44% shooting, while in losses, he has struggled with just 9.8 points per game on 28% shooting. Arizona will need Love to be more efficient than he was in their earlier season loss to Duke.
In addition to Love’s performance, Arizona will need to improve defensively against Duke’s deadly perimeter shooting. The Blue Devils rank third nationally in spot-up shooting, and if Arizona can’t contain Duke’s shooters in transition and on kickouts, it could be a long night for the Wildcats.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas: Keys for Arkansas’ Upset
In another intriguing Sweet 16 matchup, (10) Arkansas faces (3) Texas Tech, and the Razorbacks have a clear defensive advantage. Arkansas’ rim protection has been one of their strong points all season, and they’ll need that to neutralize Texas Tech’s post player, JT Toppin, the Big 12 Player of the Year. Arkansas has thrown multiple defenders at top players in the tournament and will likely do the same with Toppin, hoping to disrupt his rhythm.
Arkansas’ challenge will be to find consistent scoring, as they’ve struggled with perimeter shooting this season. However, they’ve seen some surprise performances from their shooters in key games, and if they can hit enough outside shots to stretch the Texas Tech defense, they’ll be in a good position to win.
(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss: Keys for Ole Miss’ Upset
Ole Miss enters their matchup against Michigan State as the underdog, but they have the potential to pull off a surprise. Ole Miss’ most significant advantage lies in their 3-point shooting. The Rebels have been on fire from beyond the arc, shooting 49% from three in their first two tournament games. They’ll need to continue this hot streak against Michigan State, which has been solid defensively but may struggle to contain Ole Miss’ versatile shooters, including Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield.
Ole Miss must also avoid turnovers. Despite their strong shooting, the Rebels need to control possessions and limit Michigan State’s fast-break opportunities. If Ole Miss can execute on both ends of the floor, they could challenge Michigan State’s defense and earn an Elite Eight spot.
(1) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky: Keys for Kentucky’s Success
Kentucky faces a tough challenge against the No. 1 seed Tennessee in what could be a thrilling Sweet 16 showdown. Kentucky’s offensive strategy revolves around driving to the basket and kicking out to shooters, and they’ll need to execute this perfectly to upset Tennessee. In their regular-season matchups, Kentucky had a significant advantage in spot-up shooting, outscoring Tennessee 44-15 in those situations.
Kentucky will also need strong performances from their key shooters like Koby Brea and Ansley Almonor, who have been lights out from beyond the arc. If they can get into the paint and make Tennessee’s defense collapse, they can generate open shots for their outside shooters and put pressure on the Volunteers.